Demographer's data predicts half of Texans obese by 2040

Demographer's data predicts half of Texans obese by 2040

If current trends continue, nearly half of Texas' population is likely to be obese by 2040, including almost 800,000 Rio Grande Valley residents, a new report says.

he report, compiled by Texas' state demographer and released by the Texas Health Institute, projects that 15 million Texans will be severely overweight by 2040 unless the state takes on obesity-prevention efforts.

According to the demographer's data, the number of obese residents in Cameron County is projected to increase by more than 120 percent, from about 90,000 in 2010 to nearly 200,000 in 30 years.

Hidalgo County's number of obese residents is expected to grow by more than 200 percent in the next 30 years, from about 174,000 in 2010 to 556,000 in 2040.

The state's demographer, Karl Eschbach, said the trend is disturbing.

"I'm very concerned by what I've seen regarding obesity in the state," Eschbach said. "We're seeing that obesity will continue to climb, especially in young adults, which is a very troubling development."

One researcher, however, said the report "grossly underestimates" the obesity problem in the Rio Grande Valley.

"I wish we were at the level (the report) says we are," said Dr. Joseph McCormick, regional dean for the Brownsville campus of The University of Texas School of Public Health.

Last year, researchers at the Brownsville campus completed a large-scale study of 1,800 Cameron County residents, determining that more than half were obese and another 32 percent were overweight. The data will be published later this year.

According to the Brownsville researchers' data, about 200,000 Cameron County residents already are obese. The problem is likely worse in Hidalgo County as well, McCormick said.

McCormick said the data on which the Texas Health Institute report is partly based - a federal behavioral survey - is less likely to capture data about low-income residents, who often have higher rates of obesity.

"The fact is, in our area, it's already much worse than that," McCormick said. "I consider it to be an epidemic."

In both studies, the numbers are troubling, local health officials said.

"We think it can't go any farther, but it keeps getting worse," said Dr. Brian Smith, regional director for Texas Department of State Health Services' Region 11, which includes the Valley. "This problem isn't going to magically go away."

Health officials said the obesity problem is worsening as more Texans adopt sedentary lifestyles and poor eating habits. It's especially alarming to see the upward obesity trend in young adults, Eschbach said.

"All of us tend to add weight as we age. What will their obesity rate be when these young people, now in their 20s, are in their 40s?" he said.

Rising obesity rates will put stress on the health care system, as the obese are more likely to have diabetes, heart disease, respiratory problems and chronic conditions, officials said.

In the Valley, the problem starts in childhood, Dr. Charles Austin, a McAllen family practice physician, said. Austin said about one-third of his patients who are children are overweight, and about half are inactive.

"The schools need to be more careful about meal preparation, and they need to make sure kids are physically active," Austin said. "And the parents need to take responsibility."

Something needs to be done to counteract the trend, Smith said.

"To change behavior, we have to change as a society," he said. "Everything in society has changed in the wrong direction."

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